USD/JPY STA-MACD Analysis (Fri, Mar/23/2018): -0.73% Drop Confirm A Down-Trend

MACD Trading System Analysis for USD/JPY
A moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) technical analysis for USD/JPY is generated for candle close at Fri, Mar/23/2018 00:00:00. The detail about realization of this analysis model can be found in the reference [2]. The indicator computation and presentation method uses MetaTrader version of MACD (see reference [1]), and an MACD-Signal difference is presented to enrich the analysis with the price acceleration/decceleration representation (as presented by MACD histogram in other version). The indicator presentation is shown in the Figure 1, showing the market data chart on the top, the MACD indicator bar and line in the middle, and the MACD-Signal difference histogram in the bottom.


Figure-1 USD/JPY MACD Indicator

MACD Sign as Trend Direction Identification
A less than zero of MACD is shown by the indicator, and it gives a prediction of a down-trend. The yesterday market closing (Thu, Mar 22) shows -0.73% (-7720.00 pips) fall in price from 106.03600 to 105.26400, this could be a confirmation that the bearish-trend will continue its journey. With the last MACD cross is trigered 51 trading days ago on 01/10/2018 and followed by the signal cross produced 50 trading days ago on 01/11/2018, neglecting the average price acceleration/decceleration, the down-trend is projected to continue its path.

MACD-Signal Difference: Price Aceleration Analysis
This MACD derivative analysis is important if the MACD-Signal crossover is used to trigger the trading signal. The price movement acceleration has never change its direction for 19 trading days since its crossing on 02/23/2018, and the long floating trade should be hold until the next crossing. The trend deducted by the MACD level is currently bearish while the acceleration show the reverse direction. A persistent view of this method would mean that the down-movement will deccelerate and a quick trend reversal guess is resulted.

REFERENCES

  1. MACD Technical Analysis, Moving average convergence/divergence stand-alone trading system
  2. MACD Analysis Model, Model description of MACD analysis

Presented Analysis
Data time: 2018-03-23 00:00:00
Optimization data:
Created time: 2018-03-23 00:00:07
Realtime: yes
Private publish time: 2018-03-23 00:00:16
Analysis Model Summary
First created: 2018-02-15 09:36:51
First data: 2007-01-02 00:00:00
Historical data since: 2018-02-15 09:36:51
Realtime data since: 2018-02-20 00:00:00
Latest data: 2018-03-23 00:00:00