EUR/USD STA-MACD Analysis (Fri, Mar/23/2018): -0.33% Drop in An Up-Trend

MACD Trading System Analysis for EUR/USD
A moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) analysis for EUR/USD is generated for daily close at Fri, Mar/23/2018 00:00:00. The analysis computation and presentation method uses MetaTrader version of MACD (see reference [1]), and an MACD-Signal difference is presented to enrich the analysis with the price acceleration/decceleration representation (as presented by MACD histogram in other version). Further detail about development of this analysis model is described in the reference [2]. The indicator plot is presented in the Figure 1, showing the market data plot on the top, the MACD indicator plots in the middle, and the MACD-Signal difference bar in the bottom.


Figure-1 EUR/USD MACD Indicator

MACD Sign as Trend Direction Identification
A positive sign of MACD is shown by the indicator, and it shows a prediction of an up-trend. The last market closing (Thu, Mar 22) shows -0.33% (-40.30 pips) drop in price from 1.23408 to 1.23005, but always notice that this behavior is possible since MACD indicator is based on averaging method. With the last historical MACD cross is detected 87 trading days ago on 11/21/2017 and followed by the signal cross detected 83 trading days ago on 11/27/2017, disregarding the price acceleration/decceleration, the bullish-trend is projected to continue its run.

MACD-Signal Difference: Price Aceleration Analysis
The MACD histogram analysis is meaningful if the MACD-Signal crossover is used to trigger the buy/sel signal. The acceleration of the price movement has never change its direction for the last 5 trading days since the former crossover on 03/15/2018, and the short floating position should be kept until the next crossing. The trend predicted by the MACD value is currently up while the acceleration show the reverse direction. A rational view of this strategy would mean that the up-move will deccelerate and an early trend reversal guess is resulted.

REFERENCES

  1. MACD Technical Analysis, Moving average convergence/divergence stand-alone trading system
  2. MACD Analysis Model, Model description of MACD analysis

Presented Analysis
Data time: 2018-03-23 00:00:00
Optimization data:
Created time: 2018-03-23 00:00:04
Realtime: yes
Private publish time: 2018-03-23 00:00:14
Analysis Model Summary
First created: 2018-02-15 06:30:25
First data: 2007-01-02 00:00:00
Historical data since: 2018-02-15 06:30:25
Realtime data since: 2018-02-20 00:00:00
Latest data: 2018-03-23 00:00:00